A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
